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We have secured historic prices of steel versus aluminum, going back to 1910 for cold finished steel (1018) bars, from Metal Statistics, an annual publication of the American Metal Market. We analyzed the overall trend and the result of our analysis is demonstrated by the curve on this page. It is no surprise to notice a relative increase of aluminum/steel prices during World War I, then during the depression of the thirties (American protectionism, collapse of steel prices and market). Notice also that the "oil crises" of 1973-76 triggered a massive increase in energy price which did not affect the relative price. Aluminum/steel price, on the contrary, went up only after aluminum started being quoted on the LME, indicating, as we have said several times, that an LME price invites market manipulation favoring producers against consumers, thus a price increase which cannot last forever. Our goal is to forecast when aluminum will be priced at a multiple of steel prices sufficiently low and predictable to trigger a massive explosion of aluminum applications in automobile, going as far as the all aluminum car. Such a shift (which would take approximately 15 to 20 years) would roughly double world aluminum production. |